The start of the new season and a potentially tricky away tie at West Ham awaits. With Villa’s mediocre preseason already forgotten, today’s tie is when it matters. Both sides have had wholesale changes in personnel, and it will be fascinating to see how this materialises in the respective starting elevens. For Villa, it may well be that there are not too many changes but for West Ham, it is also a new manager pulling the strings.
I would expect that Villa’s lineup will be fairly predictable. Why make massive changes to a team that finished fourth in the Premier League? The biggest change will be replacing Douglas Luiz and £50m signing Amadou Onana fits that bill. Apart from that, the midfield picks itself with Leon Bailey, John McGinn, and Youri Tielemans. The bench will be stacked with plenty of options should a replacement be needed.
Up front is where we have to look closely. Now Cameron Archer has left the club, the forward duties fall fairly and squarely on both Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran. Both have not featured in preseason at all, for different reasons, and it is difficult to see both starting at West Ham. Unai Emery tried that in the corresponding fixture back in March, but I would expect to see only one of them on the pitch at the time at London Stadium. It is more likely that Morgan Rogers will play either in midfield or pushed further forward as support. Rogers has excelled in preseason so warrants a start.
Defensively, there are not too many decisions for Emery to make either. Only at left back does a question arise; incumbent Lucas Digne or new signing Ian Maatsen get the start. I would expect Digne to keep his place for now, but there will be pressure on him to turn in good performances each week. With Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres as centre backs, there should be no room for Diego Carlos who has been linked with a move to Fulham. Matty Cash’s place at right back looks secure at present.
Opponents West Ham have also been busy in the transfer window. Under the auspices of Julen Lopetegui (Real Madrid, Spain, Sevilla, and Wolves on his CV), West Ham are in a rebuilding phase and it could be a good time to play them in the early days of their post-Moyesian phase. West Ham could have new players all over the park with the likes of Maximilian Kilman, Niclas Füllkrug, Crysencio Summerville, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Jean-Clair Tidobo, Guido Rodríguez, Luis Guilherme, and Wes Foderingham all joining in the summer.
Like Villa, West Ham has had a less than successful preseason. However, that will count for nothing come 5:30 pm. West Ham will be confident because their record against Villa is impressive, and you have to go back to Upton Park in 2011 to find the last time Villa took three points in the away fixture; winless in the last nine games away to West Ham. Last time out, it was a 1-1 draw with Nicolò Zaniolo nicking an equaliser with 11 minutes to go. Despite 69% of possession, Villa only mustered an xG of 0.7 compared to West Ham’s 2.0. With three opening day defeats in a row, perhaps Villa can finally start the season on a high? I’m not expecting it.
Prediction: 2-2 draw